Lansing Institute Tips Hichilema for Re-election, UPND Majority Likely

A United States think tank says Zambia's ruling United Party for National Development is likely to win the 13 August general elections, putting the probability of a UPND parliamentary majority at 60 percent under the country's new mixed electoral system.

In a report published on Wednesday, the Delaware-based Robert Lansing Institute for Global Threats and Democracies Studies (RLI) named the UPND the frontrunner in what analysts regard as one of southern Africa's most consequential polls this year.

"The most likely outcome is the re-election of President Hakainde Hichilema and the retention of a UPND-led parliamentary majority, although likely with a reduced margin," the institute said, citing cost-of-living concerns and a more unified opposition.

RLI noted that economic stabilisation has strengthened Zambia's international standing over the past five years.

Zambians will vote in presidential, parliamentary and local elections under an amended constitution that enlarges the National Assembly and adds proportional-representation seats, including reserved positions for women, youth and persons with disabilities. The reforms should widen representation while helping nationally organised parties turn votes into seats.

Hichilema enters with the advantages of incumbency and a record of debt restructuring, falling inflation, renewed IMF support and recovering mining investment.

RLI puts a reduced UPND majority at 25 percent, a hung parliament at 10 percent and an opposition win at five percent, adding that swing provinces and urban centres such as Lusaka will likely decide the result.